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如何看待3月份螺纹钢走势?其季节性如何定义

2019-03-17     牛牛财经   来源:和讯名家
文章摘要:  读者问:有机构及网站说每年3月份大跌的概率比较高,贵公众号也曾提及3月份大跌风险,近两年也是如此,请问怎么看待3月份螺纹钢走势?   泽铁咨询答:从历史统计数据看,螺纹钢每年价格表现的脉络比较清晰,所谓金三银四,金九银十都不金,这3月和9….
  读duzhewen:有youjigoujiwangzhanshuomeinian3月yuefendadiedegailvbijiaogao,贵guigongzhonghaoyezengtiji3月yuefendadiefengxian,近jinliangnianyeshiruci,请qingwenzenmekandai3月yuefenluowengangzoushi

  泽zetiezixunda:从conglishitongjishujukan,螺luowengangmeinianjiagebiaoxiandemailuobijiaoqingxi,所suoweijinsanyinsi,金jinjiuyinshidubujin,这zhe3月yuehe9月yuezailishixingqingzhong,大dabufenchuyuxiadie、调diaozhengshijian,但danmeiyinianxingyeyanyideluojibuyiyang,比biru2016年nian3月yuefenshibaozhangde,还huanfashengliaosanbanzhangtingdebaolixingqing;判panduanxingqingshifouyaodadie,不bujinjinshikucunyinsu,需xuqiuyinsu,还huanyaotongchoukaolvchoumafenbu,特tebieshixianhuochoumafenbuzainaxiemaoyishangshouzhong,市shichangdexintai,预yuqiruhe。众zhongsuozhouzhi,2019年nian1月yuefenzheyibofandanshizaishichangpubiankankongdeyuqizhongfashengde,符fuheshishichangfanrenxingdezheyinixiangsiwei;2019年nian3月yuefenzuidadebutongshi,春chunjiejiaowangnianzao,复fugongjiaowangnianzao,资zijinkuansongqingkuangjiao2018年nianhao;库kucunsuiranyechuyujiaogaoweizhi,但danzetiezixundiaoyanxialai,真zhenzhengtoujidezhongxiaosanhumaoyishangbilihendi,市shichangshangjiaganggantuopandeziyuanliangyefeichangdi,这zhejiudaozhiliaoyigeqingkuang,这zhexieziyuanbuhuiyinweituopanshijiandaowei,面mianlinshuhuohuankuandailaidepaoya,没meiyouchixudepaoya,随suizhuoxuqiuqidong,在zaiziyuanbijiaojizhongdeqingkuang,容rongyixingchengfanfuzhendangdezoushi。泽zetiezixunduisanyuefenxianhuodezoushipanduanyeshirenweizhendangshangxing,而erzaipanmianyeshiruci,RB1905合heyuezhendangshangxingdegailvbijiaogao,参cankao2019年nian1月yue4日ri《为weishimebudongchu》一yiwen,预yujiluowengangshangfangkeyikankan4000左zuoyou,甚shenzhiluegaoyidian。调diaozhengdexiafangzhichengzaisanyuefenjixianyejiuzai2月yuefendidian3580附fujin,依yicizhichengwei3580/3650~3680左zuoyou;所suoyipanmianchuyu3750以yixiashi,可keyichangshidaizhisunzuoduo,反fandanzhuanyiliangbaidianzejiancanglichang,也yejiushishuojiagechuyuyigexiangduidequjianzhendang,从conggangjiadechengbenlaishuo,市shichangpubianrenwei3900以yishangshihuidailaidianhuluchanliangdedaliangshifang,低diyu3750时shi,或huochangliuchengdechengbenjiuzaizhefujin,所suoyiconglilunshanglaishuo,空kongtoubuhuishadaozadao3550来lai,到daoshihoubeiyaozhuliao,可kenengzhenjiaobuchuhuolai,毕bijingzhejinianRB1905合heyuejinrujiaogeshiduhuixiangxianhuohuigui。故guerwomenkeyiba3月yuefenxingqingdingyiweijiaoroujixingqing。也yexuzhulidazijinzaifanfuxipan,绞jiaoshasanhuduodan,蓄xushidaifa,择zejiqidong;从congjishushangkanmianlinsanjiaoxingshang沿yan线xiandetupo。所suoyi2019年nian3月yuefenwomenzetiezixunbukandadie,而ershikanzhendangshangxingxingqing,故guerdaoxianzaiweizhimeiyouxiangwomendeVIP客kehufachutaobaozhiling

  读duzhewen:供gonggeicegaigesannianlai,新xinzengliaobushaorejuanchanneng,也yequdiaoliaobushaochanneng,请qingwenxianzaiyouxiangxideshuju,可keyigaozhirezhadaigang、卷juanbanxinzengliaoduoshaochannengma

  泽zetiezixunda:这zhegerezhajuanban、带daigangxinzengchanneng,说shuoshihuawomenzetiezixunmuqianzhizhangwoyigedazhishuju,因yinweijutiqueqiedechannengxinzengyuchannengzhihuan,比bijiaonanliqing,目muqiansuozhangwodeqingkuangshishan西xilonggang300万wandun、河hebeijingye300万wandun、河hebeixinda500万wandun、河hebeixindonghai300万wandun、河hebeianfeng300万wandun、广guang西xishenglongyejin300万wandundeng(详xiangxijieshaojianlujiazui(600663)黑heijinjulebulishiwenzhang)。还huanyouyibufenshuyuzhihuande,比birufengnanzonghengyutangshanguofeng;山shandonggangtie(600022)日rizhaojidishuyujinanjidichannengbanqian,异yidijianshe;部bufenqiyechannengshuyuzaoyipifu,一yizhiweijianshe,或huozhechannengzhihuanbufuheyaoqiu,建jiansheyanchideng。从congdashushanglaikan,2016年nianzhi2019年niandayuexinzeng6000万wandunzuoyourezhajuanbanchanneng,但danyouyuzhengcedeyuanyin,产channeng退tuichurezhadaigang、卷juanbandechannengdayuezai4000万wandunzuoyou,包baokuobufendiaopizhacaiqiyededaigangshengchan线xiandeng;还huanyoubufendiaopizhacaidezhongbanshengchanqiyebiruanhuifuda、长changda、兆zhaodadengjibenzaishichangshangyijingmeiyouputanzhongbanziyuantoufang,所suoyixinzengrezhajuanbandaigangchannengyaotongchouqilaikan,泽zetiezixunrenwei,在zaiyizengyijianzhijian,可kenengshichanggaoguliaochannengdezongliangzengjiaqingkuang

  读duzhewen:请qingwenzetiezixunjuedingshichangjiagezhangdiedezhuyaoyinsushishime

  泽zetiezixunda:商shangpinjiagedeyunxingfangxiangyouduozhongyinsugongtongjueding,研yanjiushangpindejiageyunxingdashi,逻luoji,也yeyouduogeweidugoucheng,从conggongxuguanxi、库kucun、金jinrong、货huobi、等dengdenggegeweiduduxuyaoguanzhu;而ershichangqingxuduijiagedeyunxingqidaozhuzhangzhudiedezuoyong,很hennanshuozhuyaoyinsushinayige。市shichangqingxuzhishiduanqide,长changqidequshihuanshiyougongxuguanxijueding,但dangongxuguanxizhiwaihuanxuyaokaolvhongguanhuanjing,经jingjizhouqideng,所suoyijuedingjiagezhongchangqiyunxingdeweiduyouduoge。每meiyigeweiduzaiyidingshiqineiqidaozhuyaozuoyong。但dandubushizuizhongdejuedingzuoyong

  读duzhewen:泽zetiezixunchangshuoluowengangshifeichanghaozuodepinzhong,季jijiexingfeichangqiang,请qingwenluowengangdejijiexingzenmedingyide,或huozhezaibutongdeyuefengairuhezuone

  泽zetiezixunda:螺luowengangzaimeiniande12月yuefenzhiciniande2月yuefenduchuyuxiaofeijueduidedanji,处chuyuleikuzhouqi,冬dongchuzhouqi;而ermeiniande3月yuefenyihou,全quanguoshi4月yuefenkaishizhi11月yuefenqijianchuyuxiaofeiwangji,期qijiannanfanghuijingliliuqibasangeyuedeyushui、高gaowentianqi。在zaizhexieyuefenli,由youyudongbei西xibeizai11月yuezhongxunyihoujibengongdikaishizhubuquanting,需xuqiujiangweiling,到daociniandesansiyuefencaiquanmianfugong,所suoyizaigongxubodongbudadeqingkuangxia,如ruguonianchudongchuziyuankucunpiangao,资zijinlianpianjinzhang,加jiaganggandezuokucundebijiaoduo,则zehenrongyichuxiandafudiaozheng,冬dongchuqianzhang,冬dongchuhou,春chunjiehouyizhouzuoyoukongzhangyixia,然ranhouchuxiandafudiaozheng,待daixiaohuawankucun,洗xiwanzhexiejiaganggandesanhumaoyishanghou,市shichangzhubuqiwenhuisheng,在zaimeiniande6~10之zhijianhuiyouyibofandan,上shangzhangxingqing,涨zhangdeshijiandagaiyigeyuezuoyou,然ranhouzai9月yuefenzuoyouchuxiandiaozheng,10月yuefenzaicifandan,如ruguobunengchuangxingao,则zezuizhongdadiedegailvfeichanggao,为weiniandidongchuzhunbei便bianyichouma。所suoyibutongdeyuefenzenmekan,一yiyaokanzishendekucunqingkuang,二erkanzishendezijinqingkuang,三sankanzishenduiqixianjieheyunyongdeshulianchengdu

    本benwenshoufayuweixingongzhonghao:陆lujiazuiheijinjulebu。文wenzhangneirongshuzuozhegerenguandian,不budaibiaohexunwanglichang。投touzizhejucicaozuo,风fengxianqingzidan

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