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关注3月底螺矿比的交易机会

2019-03-17     牛牛财经   来源:和讯名家
文章摘要:  廖雨东| 美尔雅期货黑色分析师   核心观点   .采暖季限产到期,北方重污染天气应急响应解除,利空螺矿比走势;   .螺纹钢基本面短期供需双强,中长期供给压制需求走弱。而铁矿石基本面矿难兑现供给偏紧,需求释放走势偏强;   .螺纹低基差….

  廖liaoyudong| 美meieryaqihuoheisefenxishi

  核hexinguandian

  .采cainuanjixianchandaoqi,北beifangzhongwurantianqiyingjixiangyingjiechu,利likongluokuangbizoushi

  .螺luowengangjibenmianduanqigongxushuangqiang,中zhongchangqigonggeiyazhixuqiuzouruo。而ertiekuangshijibenmiankuangnanduixiangonggeipianjin,需xuqiushifangzoushipianqiang

  .螺luowendijicha、铁tiekuanggaojichaxiangduiweizhiliyuzuokongluokuangbi

  .螺luokuangbiyunxingqujianjiao2018年nianjianghuixiayi,关guanzhuzuokongluokuangbijihui,建jianyizuoluowen05合heyueyutiekuang09合heyue。风fengxiandianxuzhuyixianchanzhixingchaoyuqi、成chengcaixuqiuchixuxianghaohekuangshisuojianbujiyuqi

yi、限xianchanjiechu,利likongluokuangbi

  2018年niankaishidelantianbaoweizhansannianjihuayijicainuanjixianchanzhengcexiangbi2017年nianquxiao“一yidaoqie”,实shixingcuofengshengchan,整zhengtishangliduxiangduikuansong。春chunjiehoushoutianqiyinsuyingxiang,限xianchanrengshiheiseshichangduanqichaozuodejiaodian。尤youqibeifangkongqizhiliangchixujiaocha,2月yue20号hao,河hebeisishiqidongzhongwurantianqihongseyingjixiangying。3月yue1号haotangshanxiafatongzhiqidongzhongwurantianqiⅠ级jiyingjixiangying。螺luowenpanmiancong3600反fandanzhi2800,铁tiekuangcong625跌diezhi590,螺luokuangbiduanqiyousuozouqiang

  但danwomenyujiluokuangbishangshengshinanyichangqichixude。中zhongguohuanjingjiancezongzhanyuji,3月yuexiaxunkongqizhiliangzhuanhao,13号haohebeishengjitongzhijiechugeshizhongwurantianqiⅠ级jiyingjixiangying。而erqiewulunshilantianbaoweizhanjihuahuanshiqiudongcainuanjixianchanzhengce,都dushizai3月yue31日rijiezhi。限xianchanjiechuduigangtiechanyeliandeyingxiangshilikongchengcai,利liduoyuanliao,螺luokuangbizhongchangqijianghuizouruo

  二er、螺luowengongxumianlikong

  1、产chanliangkucunyalibujian

  前qianqibeifangdiquzhongwurantianqichixu,限xianchanzhengcepinfa,全quanguogaolukaigonglvjihuchiping,唐tangshandiqugaolukaigonghechannengliyonglvyeshihuanmanhuifu。螺luowengangchanliangjiehouhuanbikuaisuzengjia,上shangzhouchanliangweijiehoushoucitupo2018年nianjunzhi。库kucunyechixuleiji,总zongliangda1359.25万wandun,环huanbizeng55.87万wandun。高gaochanlianggaokucunyalixialuowennanyoujiaoqiangzoushi

    2、终zhongduanxuqiuduanqiwuyuchangqicunyou

  尽jinguanyinyutianqiyiranchixu,但danxiayoukaigongzhujianhaozhuan,整zhenggezibenshichangdehuobaotuidongliaoxianhuoshichangdeleguanqingxu,上shangzhouwushichangjiancaichengjiaoliangtupo20万wandun,已yidawangjishuiping,上shanghai线xianluozhongduancaigouliangyuquanguozhuliumaoyishangjianzhugangcaizhoudurijunchengjiaoliangjunhuanbizengjia

  分fenbielaikandehua,房fangdichanxinkaigongbaochigaozengchang,但danhouduanjungongjixiaoshoutuishibugai,后houduanyalijiangzhujianxiangshangchuandao,房fangdichanduiyugangcaixiaofeideladongzuoyongduanqiwuyudanchangqicunyou。基jijianxiangmumijikaigong,投touziyousuofandan

  综zonghelaijiang,螺luowendegongxumianduanqizhuanxiangshuangqiang,对duiyuxiayouxuqiudeshifangrengjiangfanfuchaozuo,但danzhongchangqilaikan,供gonggeicegaigezhouqizhuanbianxiaxuqiuwenzhongpianjiang,在zaixianhuolashengpanmiangenzhangzhihou,高gaochanlianggaokucunlaizuokongdeanquanbianjihuigengjiaqueding

  三san、铁tiekuanggongxumianliduo

  1、供gonggeisuojianyuqiduixian

  铁tiekuangzaichunjieqianhouzhuyaoshichaozuodanshuihegukuangnandegonggeisuojianyuqi,强qiangshilashengkuangjia。但danshiduanqineizhishaomuqianduiyijidujinkoukuanggonggeideyingxianghuanweixianxian,主zhuyaoyouyukuangshanfahuodaogangdeshichayijicunliangdedibuxiaoying。我womenyujidanshuihegutiekuangfayunzaierjidujizhihouzhujianhuiyougonggeipianjindeshizhiyingxiang。而erqiecongzhoudushujulaikan,四sidakuangshanfahuoqiansanzhouchixuzengjia,上shangzhouyousuoxiajiang,整zhengtitongbirengchuyugaowei。北beifangliugangdaohuolianganyunshushijiancesuanyujijinqiyousuozengjia,但danyijiduwaikuangfayundanji,二erjiduzhengtidaohuoliangjianghuixiajiang,供gonggeiduanliduokuangjia

2、钢gangchangbukuxuqiushifang

  前qianwentidaojiehougangchangkaigonglvhuifushouxian,原yuanliaoduantiekuangdexuqiuhuanmeiyoumingxianqise,节jiehouliangzhoubansuigediluxufugong,日rijunshugangliangyousuoshangsheng,但danshouduanqixianchanchaozuoyingxiangchixuhuiluo。不buguoyekeyikanchu,同tongbiwangnianshugangliangzhengtichuzaijiaogaoshuiping,环huanbaoxianchandeliduzhengtishangshifangsongde。后houqikaigonglvjichannengliyonglvtisheng,钢gangchanglirunfandan,在zaixinyilunbukuxuqiudaidongxiajianghuitizhenkuangjia。综zonghelaikan,后houqigonggeipianjinxuqiuxianghaojumianxiadagailvlihaokuangjiazoushi

    四si、基jichaqudong,利likongluokuangbi

  按anhuadongxianhuojiajisuan,螺luowengangjichasuizhuopanmianqiangyuxianhuo,快kuaisushouzhaichuyudiwei,对duikongtoujiaoweiyouli。而erliantiejiaogezhuliweijinbubafen,折zhehepanmianhouxiangbishengshui70元yuan/吨dunzuoyou,在zaijiaogaoweizhi。基jichajiaoduduiyuluokuangbizoushiyeshilikongde

wu、螺luokuangbizoushikankong

  统tongji05合heyueluokuangbilishizoushilaikan,区qujianfanweizhengtishangcong15、16年niande[4-6]抬taishengdao17、18年niande[5-9],均junzhishuipingchixushangxing,主zhuyaodeyiyugonggeicegaigexiagangqichixugaolirun,钢gangchangxiangduishangyougengqiangshi。随suizhuogonggeicegaigedahuanjingdezhouqizhuanbian,我womenyuguluokuangbizhengtiyunxingqujianjiao2018年nianyousuoxiayi

  今jinnianbijiaodadeyigebianhuajiushiba西xidanshuihegukuangnan,在zaishichangyuqihezijinchaozuoxiakuangjiabuduantaisheng,相xiangduieryanluokuangbiyouyibodadexiadie。而erhoushichangguanzhuzhuanweixuqiuduan,限xianchanduanqiquyanxialuokuangbiyousuohuisheng

  但dandao4月yuefenxianchanjiechu,钢gangtiewangjiyiguo,高gaochanliangyalixialuowenpianruo,而ergonggeishousuotiekuangpianqiangdejumianxiakesijizuokongluokuangbi,建jianyizuoluowen05合heyueyutiekuang09合heyue。风fengxiandianxuzhuyixianchanzaiciquyan、成chengcaixuqiuchixuxianghaohekuangshisuojianbujiyuqi

    本benwenshoufayuweixingongzhonghao:大dazongneican。文wenzhangneirongshuzuozhegerenguandian,不budaibiaohexunwanglichang。投touzizhejucicaozuo,风fengxianqingzidan

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