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中国猪价将创新高 对美国猪价影响如何?

2019-03-16     牛牛财经   来源:和讯名家
文章摘要:  文 | 陈静中信期货农产品(000061)组   受去年8月份非洲猪瘟全国蔓延的影响,生猪产能急速下降。预计2019年生猪出栏量同比明显下降,全年猪价上涨基本成定局。   在周期启动点上,从近期价格来看,上涨周期已经启动。较我们之前给出最迟4月份猪价….
  文wen | 陈chenjingzhongxinqihuonongchanpin(000061)组zu

  受shouqunian8月yuefenfeizhouzhuwenquanguomanyandeyingxiang,生shengzhuchannengjisuxiajiang。预yuji2019年nianshengzhuchulanliangtongbimingxianxiajiang,全quannianzhujiashangzhangjibenchengdingju

  在zaizhouqiqidongdianshang,从congjinqijiagelaikan,上shangzhangzhouqiyijingqidong。较jiaowomenzhiqiangeichuzuichi4月yuefenzhujiajiangkaiqishangzhangmoshidepanduanyousuotiqian,反fanying“非feiwen”影yingxiangkaishitixian、市shichangzhengtizhuyuanpianshaodeshishi

  在zaishangzhangfudushang,我womenrenweixiabannianjiagedagailvtupolishizuigaojia。主zhuyaoyuanyinweixiabannianchulanliangtongbixiajiang17%以yishang,远yuangaoyu16年nianerjiduchulanliangtongbixiajiang5.9%这zheyishuzhi,结jiehenengfanmuzhuyu10个geyuehoushengzhujiagede1:5变biandongguanxilaikan,下xiabannianjiagedagailvgaoyu16年nianerjidulishizuigaojia

  在zaixingqingchixuxingshang,我womenrenweimingnianerjiduzhiqian,猪zhujiadujiangweichigaowei。考kaolvdaobulanmuzhuzai13个geyuezhihoucainengshifangchanneng,我womenyujizaijinnian5-6月yuefenyangzhilirunkeguanhou,母muzhubulanliuzhongkaishizengduo,推tuisuanzhishaozai2020年nian6月yueqian,猪zhujiajiangchuyugaowei,考kaolvdaofeizhouzhuwenyiqingyingxiang,猪zhujiachuyugaoweishijianyouwangyanchang

  美meiguocengmian,全quannianzhurougongxujunsheng。从congnengfanmuzhucunlanlianglaituisuan,2019年nianmeiguoshengzhugongyingliangyujizengjia2%;在zaishengzhuxuqiucengmian,由youyuzhongguofeizhouzhuwenyingxiang,预yujiquannianchukouzhongguozhurouliangzengjia30万wandun,占zhanrouleixiaofeiliang2.5%,进jinkouzengjialiangyujijizhongzaixiabannian

  对duiyuzhongguozhujiashangzhangduimeiguozhujiadeyingxiang,我womendezhengtiguandianshi,中zhongguoduimeiguozhujiayingxiangjizhongyuxiabannian,美meiguoxiabannianshengzhugongyingliangtongbishangsheng,但danlaizizhongguojinkouxuqiutizhenxiaofei,供gongxujunsheng,预yujimeiguoxiabannianzhuroujiagejiaoshangbannianmingxianshangzhang,同tongbichipingshenzhiluezeng。从conggeyuefenjiachalaikan,当dangqianmeiguoshourouzhuqihuoyifanyingzhongguozhuwenyingxiang,价jiachayingxiangzai15%左zuoyou

  主zhuyaofengxian

  禽qinrouchanliangdafushangzhang;非feizhouzhuwenchuanbozhimeiguo

  1

  中zhongguozhujiajiangchuangxingao

  受shouqunian8月yuefenfeizhouzhuwenquanguomanyandeyingxiang,生shengzhuchannengjisuxiajiang,根genjunongyenongcunbugongbude2月yuefennengfanmuzhucunlanliangshuju,2月yuecunlanmuzhuhuanbixiajiang5.0%,同tongbixiajiang19.1%。根genjutianxialiangcangshujujishichangxinxifanying,我womenjianggeshengfenchannengxiajiangqingkuangjinxinghuizong,最zuihoudedaoquanguochannengxiajiang17.39%。综zonghequanguoshujujifenshengfenqingkuang,母muzhuchannengyujixiajiang17%以yishang。在zaichannengsuojianqingkuangxia, 2019年nianshengzhuchulanliangtongbimingxianxiajiang,全quannianzhujiashangzhangjibenchengdingju

  在zaishangzhangxingqingqidongdianshang,我womenrenweidangqianzhouqiyijingqidong。之zhiqianwomenrenweizuichi4月yuefenzhujiajiangkaiqishangzhangmoshi,原yuanyinfenweiliangdian:一yishiyiqunian10月yuefenzhuwenchanshengpubianyingxianglaisuan,出chulanshengzhuliangjiangzaijinnian3-4月yuekaishizhujianfanyingzhuwenyingxiang;二ershijijiexingjizhouqidejiaodulaikan,4月yuetongchangweinianneijiagezuididian,近jinjicizhouqiqidongyejunzai4月yue。从congjinqijiagezoushilaikan,生shengzhujiagedanjizhangfumingxian,上shangzhangzhouqiyijingtiqianqidong

  在zaishangzhangfudushang,我womenrenweixiabannianjiagegaodiandagailvtupolishizuigaojia。从congshengzhugongyingliangjiaodu,去quniansijiduzhijinshengzhuchannengduanyashixiajiang,主zhuyaoyingxiangjinniansanzhisijiduchulanshengzhushuliang。根genjudangqianmuzhucunlanshuju,预yujisan、四sijiduchulanshengzhushuliangtongbixiajiang17%以yishang,历lishizuigaojiashiqi2016年nianshangbannianchulanliangtongbixiajiangfuduwei5.9%,从conggongyingliangxiajiangfudushangzhichishengzhujiagechuangxingao。从congnengfanmuzhujiaodulaikan,根genjunongyenongcunbuzhuanjiacesuan,当dangqiannengfanmuzhumeitongbijianshaoyigebaifendian,对dui10个geyuehoushengzhujiagetongbiyingxiangwugebaifendian,按anzhaodangqiannengfanmuzhutongbijianshao17%来laisuan,四sijidushengzhujiagetongbishangzhang85%,以yiquniantongqi14元yuanjiagegaodiancesuan,四sijidulilungaojiakeda25元yuan/公gongjin

  在zaixingqingchixuxingshang,考kaolvdaobulanmuzhuzai13个geyuezhihoucainengshifangchanneng,我womenyujizaijinnian5-6月yuefenshengzhuyangzhilirunkeguanzhihou,母muzhubulanliuzhongkaishizengduo,推tuisuanzhishaozai2020年nian6月yueqian,猪zhujiajiangchuyugaowei。考kaolvdaofeizhouzhuwenyiqingyinsuyingxiang,猪zhujiachuyugaoweishijianyouwangyanchang

2
  美meiguoshengzhushichangdangqiangaikuang

  美meiguo2019年nianshengzhugongyingyujitongbishangzhang2%。由youyu2019年niannianchumuzhucunlanduiying2019年niandichulanshengzhu,整zhengge2019年nianshengzhugongyingliangkeyiyou2018年nian3月yuezhi2019年nianchucunlanmuzhushujueding,因yinci,在zaiwochanzishudazhipingwenxia(近jinjinianweichi10.50附fujin),可keyituisuan2019年nianshengzhuchulanliangjiao2018年nianshangzhang1.79%。根genjuUSDA预yuceshuju,2019年nianchulanshengzhu13781万wantou,较jiao2018年nianshangzhang2.87%。综zonghetuisuanjieguoyuUSDA数shujulaikan,2019年nianquannianmeiguoshengzhugongyingyujizengchang2%左zuoyou

  需xuqiucengmian,主zhuyaozengliangweizhongguozhuroujinkou。由youyuzhongguofeizhouzhuwenyiqingkuosanyanzhong,2019年nianyouqixiabannianshengzhugongyingduanyashixiajiang,预yujijinkouzhurouliangyousuotisheng。从congzhongguozhuroujinkoufenbushanglaikan,美meiguobingfeishizhongguozuidazhuroujinkoulaiyuanguo,根genju2017年nianshuju,美meiguojinkouzhurouliangzhanzhongguoquanbuzhuroujinkouliangdebiliwei10%。

  从congmeiguozhurouchukoujiaodulaikan,美meiguozhurouchukouliangzhengtishangchengxianshangshengtaishi,但danjinjinianshangzhangfudujianhuan。美meiguozhurouchukouzongliangzhanzhuroushengchanzongliangdebilijinjinianxiangduipingwen,保baochizai20%左zuoyou。从congchukouguojialaikan,中zhongguobingbushimeiguozhuyaochukouguo。2017年nianmeiguozhurouchukouzongliang255万wandun,其qizhongchukouzhongguo16.5万wandun,占zhanbijinwei6.47%,出chukouzuiduoguojiaweimo西xigeheriben,分fenbiezhanbi32.12%和he21.82%。从congdangqianzhongguojinkoumeiguozhuroulianglaikan,存cunzaiyidingshangshengkongjian

  综zonghezhongguojinkouxuqiujimeiguochukougongyingqingkuang,在zaijingmaoguanxigaishandeqingkuangxia,预yujimeiniankezengjiajinkoumeiguozhurouchanliang30万wandunzuoyou。增zengfuzhanguoneixiaofeizongliangpianxiao,占zhanmeiguozhurouchanliang2.5%左zuoyou

3
  中zhongguozhujiashangzhangduimeiguozhujiayingxiang

  历lishijiageshujulaikan,两liangguozhuroujiageguanlianxingpianxiao。国guoneijinsanlunshangzhangzhouqizhong,只zhiyou2010-2011年nianshangzhangzhouqiliangguotongbu,其qiyujunbutongbu,尤youqizaiguonei2015年nianshangzhangzhouqizhong,两liangguoshengzhujiagezoushixiangfan

  但danyouyuxiabannianguoneizhurouquekoujiaoda,在zaijinkoucengmianyujizengfujiaoduo,对duimeiguozhurouxuqiuchanshengtizhen。因yincizaijiagecengmianyujiyingxiangmeiguoxiabannianzhujiazoushi

  对duiyujiageyingxiangyuqi,美meiguoshourouzhu期货价格yiyoufanying。从congmeiguozhujiajijiexingzoushilaikan,10月yuefenshengzhujiageyu4月yuefenshengzhujiagexiangchajiaoxiao,但danqihuojiageshang10月yuefenjiageyuangaoyu4月yuefenjiage,价jiachagaoda12.8%,市shichangduiyuxiabannianzhurouchukouzengliangyiyoufanying。我womendezhengtiguandianshi,中zhongguoduimeiguozhujiayingxiangjizhongyuxiabannian,美meiguoxiabannianshengzhugongyingliangtongbishangsheng,但danlaizizhongguojinkouxuqiutizhenxiaofei,供gongxujunsheng,预yujimeiguoxiabannianzhuroumingxiangaoyudangqianjiawei。当dangqianmeiguoshourouzhuqihuoyifanyingzhongguozhuwenyingxiang,给geiyujiagezhangfuyuqiwei13%-15%左zuoyou

4
  中zhongguozhurouduanquejiangdaidongmeiguozhujiashangzhang

  从congzhongguoguoneishengzhushichanglaikan,下xiabannianquezhuchengweibiranshijian,预yujigongxuquekoujiang使shidesan、四sijidushengzhujiagechuangxingao。在zaiguoneizhurouduanqueqingkuangxia,下xiabannianzengjiajinkoumeiguozhuroujiaoweiqueding,预yujizengjiameiguozhuroujinkouliangdadao30万wandun,占zhanmeiguozhurouzongchanliang2.5%。尽jinguanmeiguochanliangzengjia,但danzaixuqiutishengzuoyongxia,美meiguozhuroujiagejiangzougao。从congshourouzhuqihuojiachayumeiguozhujialishijijiexingtezhengduibizhongkeyidedao,中zhongguozengjiazhuroujinkoujiangzhishaoyingxiangmeiguozhujia15%幅fudu,使shidexiabannianmeiguozhujiajiaoshangbannianmingxianshangsheng,较jiaoquniantongqichipinghuoluezeng

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    本benwenshoufayuweixingongzhonghao:对duichongyantou。文wenzhangneirongshuzuozhegerenguandian,不budaibiaohexunwanglichang。投touzizhejucicaozuo,风fengxianqingzidan

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