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专题研究:委内瑞拉的甲醇出口变局

2019-03-16     牛牛财经   来源:和讯名家
文章摘要:  文 |姚瑶 新湖期货研究所   要点   委内瑞拉油气资源丰富,石油储量全球最大,天然气储量位居全球第八,但近年来油气产量下滑,甲醇是其天然气产业下游之一,后期原料或受影响。   2018年委内瑞拉经济形势进一步恶化,二至三季度三套甲醇装置….
  文wen |姚yaoyaoxinhuqihuoyanjiusuo

  要yaodian

  委weineiruilayouqiziyuanfengfu,石shiyouchuliangquanqiuzuida,天tianranqichuliangweijuquanqiudiba,但danjinnianlaiyouqichanliangxiahua,甲jiachunshiqitianranqichanyexiayouzhiyi,后houqiyuanliaohuoshouyingxiang

  2018年nianweineiruilajingjixingshijinyibuehua,二erzhisanjidusantaojiachunzhuangzhijiaochangshijianchuyupiandifuhezhuangtai,全quannianpingjunkaigonglvzai66%左zuoyou,低diyu2017年niande90%。

  历lishishangweineiruilajiachunzhuyaoxiangmeiguoheouzhoudiquchukou,2018年nianyue70%的deweineiruilajiachunliuxiangmeiguo、荷helan、波bolan、瑞ruidianhe西xibanyadengguojia,目muqianxiangmeiguochukoushouzu

  未weilaikenengxiangyazhoudiquzengjiagongying,但danweineiruilaxiangyazhoudiqugongyingyunshujulichang,并bingmianlinyuzhongdongdiqujingzheng,加jiazhizishenjushibuwending,影yingxiangliangjiangyouxian

  1

  委weineiruilayouqiziyuanfengfu,但danjinnianlaiyouqichanliangxiahua

  委weineiruilayouqiziyuanfengfu,根genjuBP公gongsi2017年niandetongjishuju,其qiyuanyouchuliangzai3000亿yitongyishang,储chuliangweiquanqiuzuida,天tianranqichuliangzai6万wan亿yilifangyingchiyishang,位weiliequanqiudiba

  委weineiruiladeyouqiziyuanzhuyaofenbuyuzhongbudiqudeaolinuokezhongyoudaihe西xibudemalakaibohudiqu,近jinnianlaiweineiruilaguoneizhengzhihejingjijushiehua,委weineiruilaguoyoushiyougongsiPDVSA(Petroleos de Venezuela S.A.)的derijunjingxianjinliuwufafugaiweichiqiyunyingxuyaodezibenzhichu,导daozhiyouqichanliangxiajiang。其qizhong西xibudiquchanliangxiajianggengweimingxian,2016年nianyihouaolinuokezhongyoudaichengweiweineiruiladekaifazhongdian,西xibumalakaibohudiqu2018年nianfashengyuanyouxieloushigu,政zhengfuweinengyouxiaoqingliyouwu,产chanliangxiajiangjiaju

  从congyouqichanliangzoushibijiaolaikan,近jinnianlaiweineiruilatianranqichanliangyechuxianxiahua,但danzhengtixiahuasuduhefudujunzhihouyuyuanyou。从cong2018年nianyuedushujulaikan,委weineiruilayuanyoutongbijiangfuzuigaodadao35%,天tianranqitongbijiangfuzuigaodadao20%。

  油youqichanliangdexiajiangdaozhiweineiruilayuanyouchukouxiajiang,也yejiangduiqiguoneishihuaxiayouchanyeliandeyuanliaogongyingzaochengyingxiang

  2

  2018年nianweineiruilajiachunzhuangzhiyunxingbujia

  委weineiruilatianranqidabufenliuxiangguonei,其qizhong31.5%用yongyufadian,委weineiruilayue50%石shihuaranliaofadianlianglaizitianranqi。35%用yongyushihuaxingye,其qizhongdabufenyongyufuzhushiyoukaicai,也yeyouyibufenyongzuohuagongpinshengchanyuanliao,例lirujiachundeshengchan

  委weineiruilazhuyaoyouliangjiaqiye(三santaozhuangzhi)生shengchanjiachun,其qizhongzhuangzhiSupermetanol和heMetor 1在zai1994年niantouchan,另lingyitaojiaoxindeMetor 2装zhuangzhizai2010年niantouchan。两liangjiaqiyeduweiyuweineiruiladongbeibu沿yanhaiansuoatejizhoudehesai・安andongniao・安ansuoatejizongheshiyouhuagongjidi

  两liangjiajiachunqiyedeguoyoukonggujunlaiziweineiruilaguoyoushihuagongsiPequiven(Petroquímica de Venezuela S.A.)。Pequiven负fuzeshengchanhexiaoshoushihuachanpin,并bingcanyuhezixiangmu。Pequiven在zaiSupermetanol和heMetor的dechigubilizai30%左zuoyou,Supermetanol的deqitaruguqiyeweiyidaliainijituanheguowaiyinxing。Metor的deqitaruguqiyeweiribensanling,委weineiruiladangdiqiyePolar和heguojijinronggongsideng

  委weineiruilajiachunqiyeshengchandewendingxingshoudaoqiguoneijushideyingxiang,2018年nianweineiruilajingjixingshiehua,政zhengjudongdang,二erzhisanjidusantaozhuangzhijiaochangshijianchuyupiandifuhezhuangtai,全quannianpingjunkaigonglvzai66%左zuoyou,低diyu2017年niande90%。

3
  历lishishangweineiruilajiachunmaoyiyioumeiweizhuyaochukoumudedi

  历lishishangweineiruilajiachunzhuyaoxiangmeiguoheouzhoudiquchukou。委weineiruilasantaozhuangzhinianchannengyue230万wandun,按an2018年nianyue66%的dequannianpingjunkaigongjisuan,全quannianchanliangzai150万wandunzuoyou,其qizhongyue50万wandunchukouzhimeiguo,约yue58万wandunchukouzhiouzhoudiqu,流liuxiangoumeidiqudejiachunzhandaoweineiruilagongyingguimode70%。

  美meiguoshiweineiruilajiachunchukoudediyidaquxiang,美meiguoyuweineiruiladiliweizhilinjin,历lishishangmeiguoshiweineiruilashihuachanpinchukoudezhuyaomudedizhiyi。但dansuizhuomeiguozishenjiachunchanyemaoyigejudedezhuanbian,两liangguozhijiandejiachunmaoyiliangchengxianxiajiangqushi,下xiajiangqushizaimeiguoyutelinidazhijiandejiachunmaoyizhongyeyoutixian。2018年nianmeiguojiachunjinkouliangwei246万wandun,同tongbixiajiang6%,出chukouliangwei185万wandun,同tongbizengjia58%,从congyuedushujulaikan,2018年nian6月yuemeiguojiachunchukouliangshoucichaoguojinkouliang,成chengweijingchukouguo

  近jinnianlaimeiguojiachunxinzhuangzhidechixutoufangshidaozhishangshugaibiandezhuyaoyuanyin。2014-15年nianqijianmeiguoxinzengjiachunchanneng400万wandun/年nian,2018年nianzaicijinrutoufangzhouqi,2019年nian-2022年nianqijianhuanjiangyouyue800万wandun/年nianchannengtouchan。预yuqiweilaimeiguoduiwaibushichangdejingchukouliangjiangjinyibutigao

  长changqilaikanmeiguozhengtijingchukouzengjiajiangshiqushi,而erduanqilaikan,美meiguoduiweineiruiladejinkouxuqiuxiajiangjiangyougengkuaidetixian。2019年nianchumeiguojiadaduiweineiruiladezhicailidu,1月yuedimeiguoxuanbujinzhiPDVSA的deyuanyouchukoudaomeiguo,在zaimeiguotingzhijinkouweineiruilayuanyouhou,部bufenyinxingkaishixianzhiduiweineiruilachukoumaoyidexinyongzhengkaili,运yunshugongsiyechuyushoukuanfangmiandedanyoutingzhiyunshuweineiruilahuowu,因yincizheyijinyoulingjianjieyingxiangdaoweineiruiladejiachunchukou

4
  未weilaiweineiruilajiachunkenengduiyazhoudiquzengjiagongying,但danzengliangyujiyouxian

  在zaiweineiruilajiachunduioumeichukouqianjingbuquedingdeqingkuangxia,未weilaiqijiachunkenengdeyidaquxiangshiyazhoudiqu,但danconghengxiangbijiaolaikan,并bingbujuyouyoushi

  目muqianrihandengdiqujieshouweineiruilahuowuyexiangduijinshen,历lishishangweineiruiladuiyazhoudiqudechukouxiangduixiaoyuoumeidiqu,2018年nianzhongguoziweineiruilajinkoujiachunliangjinwei10万wandun

  委weineiruilajiachunzaiyazhoudiquhuanxuyaomianduizhongdongdiquzhuangzhidejingzheng。中zhongdongdiqujiachunyunshudaoyazhouhaoshi15天tianzuoyou,而ermeizhoujiachunyunshudaoyazhouxuyao40天tian,而ermeizhouheyazhouzhijianjiachunmaoyiliangxiangduixiaoyuzhongdongyuyazhouzhijiandemaoyiliang,运yunfeigenggao。中zhongdongdiquyilangmuqianyezaimeiguodezhicaizhixia,以yizhongguoheyinduzuoweizhuyaochukoumudedi,委weineiruilajiachungongyingzaizaitiliangheshixiaoshangdubujiyilangjiachun

  即ji使shiweineiruilajiachunnenggouhuodeyazhoudiqumaijiadeqinglai,目muqianweineiruilajushixianzaidejushibingbuliyujiachundechanliangbaochiwending。一yifangmian,如rushangsuoshu,委weineiruilajiachunchanyedeshangyouyuanliaochanliangchixuxiahuabingkenengzaiweilaiweichixiajiangqushi。另lingyifangmian,委weineiruilamuqiandeqiyejingyinghuanjingcha。以yijinqifashengdequanguoxingtingdianshijianweili,2019年nian3月yuechu,因yinyijiabiandianzhanshixiao,其qiguoneizuidadeshuidianzhandefadianhegongdianxitongwufagongzuo,负fuzeweineiruila50%电dianligongyingdexitongtanhuan,何hesaigangdeyuanyouchukouzuoyeshouyingxiang,而erweineiruiladeliangjiajiachunshengchanqiyesuozaihuagongjidiweizhilinjinhesaigang

  综zongshangsuoshu,无wulunduanqihuanshichangqi,委weineiruiladuimeiguodiqudejiachunchukoucunzaixiajiangfengxian,未weilaikenengzhuanxiangyazhoushichang,但dankaolvdaoqitiliangyouxian,并bingbuhuiduiyazhoushichangchanshengleisiyilangjiachundechongji

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    本benwenshoufayuweixingongzhonghao:对duichongyantou。文wenzhangneirongshuzuozhegerenguandian,不budaibiaohexunwanglichang。投touzizhejucicaozuo,风fengxianqingzidan

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