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库存登顶 MEG该如何翻身?

2019-03-16     牛牛财经   来源:和讯名家
文章摘要:  文 |庞春艳 Future民心所向   经授权发布   关于MEG策略、核心逻辑探讨及跟踪,请查阅2月17日大宗商品脱水策略周报:累库未到,检修已至,这两个化工品的向下空间已开启? 以及3月10日的脱水策略周报月度复盘特刊   2月中下旬开始,MEG价格….
  文wen |庞pangchunyan Future民minxinsuoxiang

  经jingshouquanfabu

  关guanyuMEG策celue、核hexinluojitantaojigenzong,请qingchayue2月yue17日ridazongshangpintuoshuiceluezhoubao:累leikuweidao,检jianxiuyizhi,这zhelianggehuagongpindexiangxiakongjianyikaiqi? 以yiji3月yue10日ridetuoshuiceluezhoubaoyuedufupantekan

  2月yuezhongxiaxunkaishi,MEG价jiagechuxianyilunchixufandan,主zhuli1906合heyuejiagecong5000元yuan/吨dunyi线xianfandanzhi5400元yuan/吨dunyishang,主zhuyaoshiyuanyoujiagedaidonghuagongpinzouqiang,石shinaoyou、乙yixijijiachundengyuanliaojiagechixushangzhang,另lingwaidiejiazengzhishuixiadiao,现xianhuoshichangqifenhaozhuandengyinsu,MEG价jiageyiduchixuzougao

  但danyucitongshi,MEG的degongyingyaliquezaibubupansheng,高gaoweijixushangshengdegangkoukucunduiMEG来laishuoyalishanda

  1

  库kucunchixushangsheng,压yalishanda

  2019年nianchunjiehou,CCF统tongjideMEG港gangkoukucunshujutupo100万wandunguankou,3月yuefenyoujiasuleikudejixiang,至zhi3月yue7日rigaishujuyijingtupo130万wandunguankou,不buduanshuaxinjinjiniandegaoweijilu。最zuixinyiqishujuxianshi,华huadongzhugangdiquMEG港gangkoukucunyue130.1万wandun,环huanbishangqijianshao1.4万wandun,看kansikucunxiajiang,但danshijijinqiduocitingwengangkouzhuyaocangchuqiyeyinyetihuagongkucunpiangaoxianzhirukudeshuofa,另lingwaiyouxiaoxixianshizuijinyizhouMEG港gangkoudaohuozongliangyujijiangdadao18万wandunyishang,因yincikucunwentimuqianyijiushiMEG市shichangdezhongyaoyalisuozai

2
  企qiyewushikuisun,持chixushengchan

  随suizhuoguoneimeihuagonggongyidebuduangaijin,装zhuangzhiyunxingdewendingxingmingxiantigao,乙yierchunxingyedezhengtizhuangzhifuhezai2017年nianxiabanniankaishidafutisheng。2018年nianxiabannianzhijin,国guoneiMEG的dezhuangzhifuheyuanyuangaoyuwangniantongqishuiping。从congtubiaozhongkan,MEG的dekaigongfuheyousandianxuyaojieshi。一yishi,每meiniandeyijiduMEG的dezhuangzhifuheduhuidafushangsheng,主zhuyaoshiguoneiyixifazhuangzhiduopeitaoEO生shengchan线xian,但danchunjieqijianEO的dexiaofeiweisuo,运yunshutingzhi,因yincizhexiezhuangzhibudebuzhuanchanMEG,等dengchunjiehouEO的dexiaofeihuifuzaiduzhuanchanEO。二ershi,国guoneiMEG的dezhuangzhifuhediyu2018年niantongqishuiping,与yu2018年nianchunjiejiao2019年nianwanyouguan。三sanshi,每meiniande5-7月yueguoneiMEG开kaigongduhuijiangzhinianneididian,可kejianMEG将jiangzai5月yuefenzhihouyinglaijizhongjianxiu,一yifangmianshizhuangzhilixingjianxiu,另lingwaicongqianjiniandeshujukan,每meiniande5-7月yuefenMEG的deshengchanlirundubijiaocha,也yeshikaigongfuhexiajiangdebufenyuanyin

  目muqiankan,MEG利lirunzi2018年nianxiabanniandafuxiahuayilai,至zhijinmeiyoumingxiangaishan,石shinaoyouyitihuashangkeweichi50美元/吨dunzuoyoudelirun,外waicaiyixihejiachunzhuangzhiyijiuxianrushenshenkuisunzhong,煤meizhiMEG的deyingliqingkuanggejiaqiyebutong,但danzhengtibaochizaiweilihuozhekuisundezhuangtaijuduo。然raner,目muqianguoneiMEG并bingweichuxiandamianjijianchandeqingkuang,利lirunbujiademeizhizhuangzhifuhezai85%以yishangdegaowei,主zhuyaoshimeizhizhuangzhidetouziyibanbijiaoda,企qiyedecaiwuchengbengao,另lingwaiqiyedaduoyuxiayoukehuqiandingliaohetonghuo,因yincixiangbilaishuo,停tingchededaijiagengda

  国guowaifangmiankan,目muqianyou2套tao30多duowandunzhuangzhichuyutingchejianxiuzhuangtai,3月yuexiaxunyou4套tao54万wandunzhuangzhijizhongjianxiu,5月yuefenxinlaidazhuangzhijianxiu,目muqiandejianxiuliduxiangbi1400多duowandundechannenglaikanbuda,另lingwaimeiguoletian70万wandunxinzhuangzhi1月yuefentouchan,目muqianzhuangzhiwendingxingyoudaitigao;马malai西xiya75万wandunzhuangzhitiqianzhi2月yuefentouchan,目muqianzanweichuliao,但danzheliangtaoxinchannengdeyunxingwendinghou,将jiangmingxianzengjiashichanggongyingyali

  美meiguoSasol28万wandunzhuangzhijihua6-7月yuefenshiche,2019年nianguoneihuanjiangyoujin250万wandundexinchannengjihuatouchan,可kejianxinnianduMEG的deneiwaigongyingjiangtongbushangsheng,压yaliburongxiaoqu

3
  消xiaofeiruchunhuinuan,但danbugeili

  MEG的dexiayouzhuyaoxiaofeilingyuzaijuzhixingye,但dancongmuqianjuzhidezhuangzhifuhekan,虽suirantongqikaigonghuifuqingkuangjibenyizhi,但dankaolvdaochunjiejiao2018年nianzaodeyinsu,今jinnianxiayoudefusushijijiaoqunianfanghuan,与yuwomenzhiqiandeyuqijiaoweiyizhi。2018年nianjuzhixingyedexiaofeicongjingqigaodianhuiluo,2019年niankongnanweichiqianliangniandejingqidu。目muqianxiayoujuzhichangkucunyalizai3月yuechujingliyilunxiajianghou,近jinqizaiduhuifuleikuzhuangtai,下xiayouzhizaochangyuanliaokucunpiangao,订dingdanqingkuangmeiyoumingxianhaozhuan,备beihuojijixingshouxian,因yincixiaofeishichangdeqidongyijiuhuanman。从congwangniandeqingkuangkan,4月yuefenzhihoujuzhikucunyalizai4月yuefenzhihoucaihuiyousuogaishan

  综zongheyishangfenxi,MEG市shichangdemaodunjiaoweituchu,主zhuyaoshigongyingchixuzengjia,消xiaofeibiaoxianpingdan,库kucunyalinanyihuanjie。2019年nian,MEG市shichangdezhuyaosiluyijiushifenggaogukong,但danruguoxingyelirundebudaomingxianxiufu,做zuokongyemeiyoutaidakongjian,目muqianjixuweichipianruozhendangsilu

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    本benwenshoufayuweixingongzhonghao:对duichongyantou。文wenzhangneirongshuzuozhegerenguandian,不budaibiaohexunwanglichang。投touzizhejucicaozuo,风fengxianqingzidan

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