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试错交易:3月18日市场观察

2019-03-15     牛牛财经   来源:和讯
文章摘要:  第一象限(杠杆象限)――商品空头氛围浓厚 化工油脂领衔下跌   今日商品指数下跌0.50%,工业品下跌0.68%,农产品下跌0.12%。其中,化工板块下跌1.52%,油脂板块下跌1%,有色板块下跌0.57%,原油板块下跌0.53%,软商板块下跌0.49%,贵金属下跌0.27%,….

  第diyixiangxian(杠gangganxiangxian)――商shangpinkongtoufenweinonghouhuagongyouzhilingxianxiadie

  今jinrishangpinzhishuxiadie0.50%,工gongyepinxiadie0.68%,农nongchanpinxiadie0.12%。其qizhong,化huagongbankuaixiadie1.52%,油youzhibankuaixiadie1%,有yousebankuaixiadie0.57%,原yuanyoubankuaixiadie0.53%,软ruanshangbankuaixiadie0.49%,贵guijinshuxiadie0.27%,建jiancaibankuaixiadie0.13%,煤meitanbankuaishangzhang0.12%,饲siliaobankuaishangzhang0.58%,谷guwubankuaishangzhang0.82%。

  


  2019年nianqianlianggeyueguimoyishanggongyezengjiazhitongbishijizengchang5.3%,但danzengsuchuangchujin17年nianyilaidexindi,近jinqigongyeqiyeyingli、PMI表biaoxianjunjiaoruo,经jingjixiaxingyalichixujiada。央yangxinglianxu11个gejiaoyiriweixiangshichangtoufangliudongxinghou,今jinriyililvzhaobiaofangshikaizhanliao200亿yiyuannihuigoucaozuo,资zijinmiandechongzuyouliyuweichijingjipingwenyunxing

  今jinrishangpinzhengtipianruoyunxing,大daduoshubankuaijunchuxianzouruo,化huagongheyouzhibankuailingxianxiadie,使shideshichangjinrukongtoufenwei。2月yuefenopecyuanyouchanliangjianshao22.1万wantong/日ri,成chengyuanguojixujianchan,减jianchanzhixinglvgaoda105%,对duiyuanyoujiagexingchengqianglizhicheng。但danyuqijinmixiangguandexiayouchanyelianbingweigensuibiaoxian,化huagongbankuaifanerchengxianjitixiadie,可kejianmuqianpanmiandeliandongxingjicha。油youzhiyanxuzuoriruoshixingqing,是shimuqianqushixingjiaohaodebankuai,空kongtoukechixuguanzhu。临linjinzhoumo,投touzizhexudiaozhengcangwei,做zuohaofengxianguanli

  第dierxiangxian(交jiaohuanxiangxian)――三sandaguzhiquan线xianpiaohonghuzhizaishang3000点dian

  今jinriA股quan线xianpiaohong,但danshiyijiuchuyuzhendangqujianzhong,成chengjiaoliangjinyibuxiajiang。其qizhong,沪huzhishangzhang1.04%报bao3021.75点dian;深shenzhengchengzhishangzhang1.41%报bao9550.54点dian;中zhongxiaobanshangzhang1.41%报bao6198.56点dian创业板shangzhang0.75%报bao1662.62点dian。沪hushenliangshichengjiao7.63亿yishou,总zongchengjiaoewei7506.68亿yiyuan。今jinrizhulijingliuchu47.04亿yiyuan,北beishangzijin(沪hugangtongjiashengangtong)净jingliuru28.57亿yiyuan

  



  今jinri,国guowuyuanzonglidajizhewenzhongbiaoshijinnianyujizengchang6%-6.5%,不buhuirangjingjiyunxinghuachuhelidequjian。这zhejuhuazaiyidingchengdushanggeishichangfachuliaowendingdexinhao。同tongshibiaoshi,今jinnianxiajuexinjinxinggengdaguimodejianshuijiangfei,4月yue1日rijiuyaojianzengzhishui,5月yue1日rijiuyaojiangshebaofeilv,全quanmiantuikai,减jianshuijiangfeihonglijinliangwan亿yiyuan。这zhekeyishuoshiyingduidangqianjingjixiaxingyalideyigeshifenzhongyaodeguanjianxingjucuo。除chucizhiwai,让rangxiaoweiqiyerongzichengbenzaiquniandejichushangzaijiangdi1个gebaifendian。由youcikejian,继ji“定dingxiangfangshui”成chengweihuobizhengcedezhujidiaohou,减jianshuijiangfeijiangchengweiweilaicaizhengzhengcedezhujidiao

  纵zongguanA股gu,节jiehouchuxianjinbangeyuededazhangzhihou,当dangqianxianruzhendanghuidiaoqi。之zhiqianzaigushizhangshizuimengdeshiduan,报baogaozhongyizhitixingtouzizheyaozaifengkuangzhongbaochilizhi,建jianyizhuigaomairudepengyoushidangpeizhixieguzhizuoduichong。当dangqianjingjixiaxingyalibujian,股gushibingmeiyoujiaohaodejibenmianzhicheng,稳wendingdeniushiyoudaiqueren。不buguo,在zaijingjixinjiudongnengzhuanhuandeguochengzhong,传chuantongxingyeyeyouhenduojiajiexinxingxingyedejihui,建jianyiguanzhuzhizaoyedechanyeshengji

  第disanxiangxian(资ziyuanxiangxian)――创chuangtouguimokuodashexiaozengsuzouruo

  截jiezhi19年nian1月yue,中zhongjixieyibeian私募基金guimo12.74万wan亿yi,较jiao18年nian12月yuejianshao370.9亿yiyuan,环huanbixiajiang0.29%,从congshangtukeyikanchu1月yuesimuzhengquantouzijijinyuqitasimujijinguimodafujianshao,环huanbixiajiangjiejin5%,而ersimuguquanjijinyuchuangyetouzijijinzedafushangzhang,环huanbishangzhang3%左zuoyou,同tongbifenbieshangzhang21.59%与yu43.61%。股guquanshichang1月yuezhongxinhuidaogaosuzengchangjieduan,这zheyuwomenzhiqiandepanduanyizhi

  


  从cong18年nianxiabanniankaishi,一yixiliecijichuangtouzhengcechutai。在zaidajingjizhouqixia,股guquantouzizuoweijingjizengchangdejichufalidian,政zhengfuduiqizhongshichengdukejianyiban,这zheyuwomenquanyuzichanguanlimoxingdechudejielunyizhi。年nianqian,科kechuangbanzitichujinjinjingli3个geduoyueshijianjizhengshifabuzhengqiuyijian稿gao;“两liangtaobanfa、六liudaguize”的dejichuzhiduyuyewuguizetixiyu3月yue1日rifabu,意yiweizhuochuangyebanzhengshikaizha,高gaoxinjishuxingyezhucezhideshidaijijiangdaolai。与yucitongshi,年nianhoushichangzhongshixinxin,各geleizichanjiagekuaisushangzhang,从congerjishichangdefanyinglaikan,科kechuangbangainiancu使shiquanshanggushixianduoridazhang,多duoshugujiashixianfanbei,投touzizheduiyukechuangbanyuqiyijiuchongmanreqing。18年niandimidejingjihuoyinglaichuntian,我womenduiyuchuangtouxingyedezengchangqianlichiyouleguantaidu

  刚ganggangguojiatongjijugongbu2019年nian1-2月yuezhongguojingjiyunxingzhuyaoshuju。其qizhong,工gongyezengjiazhizengsu5.3%,预yuqi5.6%;社shehuixiaofeipinlingshouzongezengsu8.2%,预yuqi8.2%;固gudingzichantouzizengsu6.1%,预yuqi6.1%。工gongyezengjiazhizengsubujiyuqi,再zaichuangxindi,工gongyeshengchanjixuchengya,经jingjiyunxinghuanjingrengbijiaojiannan。社shehuixiaofeipinlingshouzongezengsuweichiduoniandibu,消xiaofeixuqiuzhengtipiruan。日riqianbaojiexuanbucongbalifanoujiaoyisuo退tuishi,原yuanyinzhuyaoyezaiyuquanqiuxiaofeixuqiusuojian,导daozhixiaofeipinqiyeshourudafusuoshui。预yujixiaofeipinlingshouzengsurengjiangjixuweichidiwei,短duanshijianneihuifuxiaofeixuqiudekenengxingjiaoxiao。在zaijingjihuanjingyuxuqiushuangzhongdayaxia,各gepinleixiaofeipinqiyejunbeiboji,生shengcunyalibeizeng。同tongyang,消xiaofeipinqiyegujiahuoguzhitongyangchuyudiwei,对duiyuchuangtoujigouyuxingyelingtouqiyeeryan,当dangqianhuoshitouzihuozhenghebinggoudejiaohaoshiji

  


  第disixiangxian(信xinyongxiangxian)――二ershoufangjiagehuanbihuishengjiaoyijianshuicudiaokongsongbang

  2019年niandi10周zhou(3月yue4日ri-3月yue10日ri)百baichengershouzhuzhaiguapaijunjiawei14834元yuan/平pingfangmi,环huanbishangzhang0.16%;上shangzhangchengshi59个ge(减jianshao1个ge),平pingjunzhangfukuodazhi0.76%;下xiadiechengshi41个ge(增zengjia2个ge),平pingjundiefushouzhaizhi0.46%。其qizhong,一yi线xianchengshiershouzhuzhaijunjia55620元yuan/平pingfangmi,均junjiahuanbixiadie0.48%;二er线xianchengshiershouzhuzhaijunjia18226元yuan/平pingfangmi,均junjiahuanbiweizhang0.19%;三sansi线xianchengshiershouzhuzhaijunjia10506元yuan/平pingfangmi,均junjiahuanbishangzhang0.34%。各ge线xianchengshizongtiershoufangjiagezijianceyilaishoucichuxianzhouduhuanbishangzhang,其qizhongyi线xianchengshichixuxiadie,二ersansi线xianchengshizechuxianbutongchengdushangzhang。而ercongquyutongjilaikan,前qianqixiadiejiaokuaidedongbudiquershoufangjiagezaiduweizhang,环huanbizhangfuwei0.13%。

  

  从congzuixindeershoufangjiashujulaikan,当dangqianquanguoershoufangjiazhangdiechengshishulianggeban,整zhengtifangjiahuanbizhidiehuisheng,企qiwenjixiangmingxian。但danxikanshujuhuifaxian,可keyiyongyijuhuagaikuoxinnianyishige线xianchengshidefangjiazhuangtai:各ge线xianchengshidiefushouzhai,二er线xianchengshichuxianweizhang。我womenzaizhiqiandebaogaozhongduocizhichuzhouqilundonghezhengcebianhuaduige线xianfangjiazoushideyingxiang,一yi线xianchengshiyinweigaoyadiaokongxianzhi,房fangjiazaiquanguofanweineilvxiankaiqihuidiao,至zhijinrengranwenbuxiadie;2018年nianxiabanniankaishi,其qitage线xianchengshiluxuchutailiaoxiangyingdediaokongzhengce,但dantongshiyouduobansuizhuoyixie“对duichongzhengce”,尤youqishier线xianchengshidiaokonglidusuiranxiangduijiaoda,前qianqifangjiadiefuyekaoqian,但danjinqibuduanyourencaiyinjinheyouhuiluohudengzhengcechutai,成chengweicijizhexiediqufangjiaweizhangdedongli;而ersansi线xianchengshizeyinwei“一yichengyice”主zhujidiaodecunzai,不butongchengshijianchuxianliaobutongdeloushizhengce,调diaokonghejilizhengcebingju,所suoyisansi线xianchengshineibufangjiazoushiyousuofenhua


  近jinri,关guanyufangwujiaoyishuifeixiadiaodexiaoxijingbaodichanquan,涉shejishuizhongzhuyaoshiyinhuashuihezengzhishuifujiadeng,虽suiranduizhexieshuizhongdejianshoubingbunengduifangwujiaoyichengbenchanshengshizhiyingxiang,但danquenengzhijiecijifangwujiaoyichengjiaoliangdehuisheng。官guanfangdejiangshuikeyishuozaiciyinzhengliaoguanlicengduifangdichanshichangdiaokongsiludezhuanbian,其qishizaozaiqunian10月yuefenzhezhongbianhua便bianyiqiaorankaiqi。在zaiqunian10月yuedezhengzhijuhuiyizhong,房fangdichanshouciweibeitiji,在zaijiexialaide12月yuejingjihuiyishang,高gaocengrengduifangdichan“只zhiziweiti”,这zhejiuweiloushidiaokongjidiaodebianhuamaixialiaofubi,至zhijinqilianghuidezhengfugongzuobaogao,“房fangzhubuchao”、“租zushoubingju”等dengcixiaoshibujian,可keyishuocongqunian10月yuezhijin,管guanlicengyijingweiloushidiaokongsongbangliuzuliaocaozuokongjian。所suoyiwomentongqiyenengkandao20多duogechengshiluxuchutailiaogeiloushisongbangdexinzheng,虽suiranduoweishitanxingcuoshi,但danyezuyizhengshiweichijinsanniandebenlundiaokongzhengzaizouxiangzhouqideweisheng

  外waihuibankuai――两lianghuibimuzhongmeicuoshangjinzhanjixuzhuwenhuilv

  周zhouwu英镑shaozuochuanxi,日riyuanshangzhang;人renminbizaopanweibian,总zonglijizhehuihezhongmeicuoshangjinzhanzhuwenhuilvyuqi

  3月yue15日rixiaoxi,英yingbangzhouwushaozuochuanxi,但danbenzhouyouwangludeqizhoulaidezuidadanzhouzhangfu,继jizhousantoupiaofoujuewu协议脱欧hou,英yingguoyihuizhousitoupiaozhichituichi退tuiou。日riyuantuoliyizhoudidian,此ciqianribenyangxingweichililvbubian,且qieyoubaodaochengchaoxianzaikaolvzantingyumeiguohetanpan。英yingbangdui美元benzhouyilaiyishangzhang1.8%,为wei1月yuediyilaizuidazhou线xianzhangfu,英yingguojiangbimianwuxieyi退tuioulingtouzizheshiran,这zhezhichengliaoyingbang。英yingguoyihuitongguoyixiangdongyi,提tichuliaozheyangdexuanxiang:议yihuiruonengzai3月yue20日riqianjiu退tuiouxieyidachengyizhi,则zexiangoumengyaoqiuduanqiyanchi退tuiou;若ruowufajishidachengyizhi,则zejiaochangqiyanchi退tuiou。中zhongguozonglilikeqiangzhouwubiaoshi,今jinnianzhongguojingjimianlindebuquedingyinsubushao,还huanyaoyougengduodeyingduizhunbeizhongguoliuyouliaozhengcekongjian,比birutigaochizilv0.2个gebaifendian,没meiyouchaoguoguojishangshuodesuowei3%的dejingjie线xian;而erqiehuankeyiyunyongxiangcunkuanzhunbeijinlv、利lilvdengshuliangxinghuojiagexinggongju,这zhebushifangsongyingen,而ershirangshitijingjigengyouxiaodidedaozhichi。隔geye美指jikepanfengdigouhuizuoyongxia,人renminbizhendangzouruo;两lianghuibimuhoudezhongguozonglijizhehuihezhongmeicuoshang“实shizhixing”进jinzhanjixuzhuwenhuilvyuqi。市shichangpanduanduanqirenghengpanzhengli,待daizhongmeicuoshangxijiejimeizhizouxiangzhiyin

  人renminbiduimeiyuanjiqizhouwuzaopanweidie,中zhongjianjiazedieyu150点dianjieshusiliansheng。近jinqizhengtishichangjiaotoupiandan,情qingxuwending,而erzonglijizhehuishifangduijingjiweiwendexinhao,及jizhongmeicuoshangzaiwenbenshangqudeshizhijinzhandexiaoxi,强qianghuadangqiandehuilvwendingyuqi,但danjulizhongmeicuoshangzuihoudachengxieyirengyoushiri,市shichangrengzaiqidaigengduoxijie。今jinrirenminbiduimeiyuanzhongjianjiabao6.7167元yuan,上shangriwei6.7009元yuan

  农nongchanpinzhuanlan――猪zhuroujiagedeshangzhangdailaijidandefandan

  本benzhouzhuroujiagerengzaibuduandeshangzhang,全quanguojunjiayijingdadao15.6元yuan/千qianke,猪zhujiadeshangzhangrangjidanjiagechuxiandafudefandanxingqing。随suizhuofeizhouzhuwendebuduanfajiao,各gediqushengzhucunlanliangrengzaijixuxiajiang。首shouxianhuanbaoduiyangzhideyaoqiuyuelaiyuegao,达dabudaobiaozhundezhuchangbunengyangzhu,政zhengfuyaoqiuxiaosanbunengyangzhi,是shicunlanxiajiangdeyigeyinsu。非feizhouzhuwenduixiaofeixinliyecunzaiyidingdeyingxiang,导daozhixiaofeixiajiang,加jiashanghuozhujinzhikuashengdiaoyun,部bufenshengfenchuxianzhuroujinzhangqingkuang。第dier,2019年niandongrouchubeigongzuoyu3月yue8日riqidong。收shouchudaozhituzaiqiyejiadashougouliang,让rangzhujiakuaisushangzhang。从congeryinfajidanjiagededafushangzhang。第disan,数shujuxianshi,在zaichandanjicunlanliangtongbiqunianlianxusigeyuezoudi,2019年nian1月yueyuchujibulanlianghuanbizengjia22.62%,但dantongbijianshao4.46%,短duanqizaichandanjishuliangxiajiang,也yeshijidanjiagezhidiefandandezhongyaoyinsu,随suizhuoshijiandetuiyi,在zaichandanjishuliangzengjiadeqingkuangxia,鸡jidanjiagedeshangzhangkongjianyouxian

  期qihuopinzhongjiexi――减jianshuiluodifenqijiajuzonglvxiadieyizhiduxiu

  



  金融期货股指期货weipanshouyangkuanfuzhendang

  今jinri,三sandaguzhiqihuoqishangzhang,尾weipanshouyang,但danshiyijiuzaizhendangqujiannei。由youyuzhuliheyuehuandao1904,量liangcangchuxiandafuliuru。其qizhong,IF(沪深300)上shangzhang1.3%报bao3751.6点dian;IH(上shangzheng50)上shangzhang1.04%报bao2768.0点dian;IC(中zhongzheng500)上shangzhang1.24%报bao5330.6点dian。量liangcangdafuliuru,IF日rizengcang16312手shou,增zengcangbili33.56%,净jingliuru38.14亿yi,流liurubili26.10%,;IH日rizengcang9330手shou,增zengcangbili41.85%,净jingliuru15.91亿yi,流liurubili30.29%;IC日rizengcang10845手shou,增zengcangbili23.06%,净jingliuru36.20亿yiyuan,流liurubili19.56%。

  两lianghuizhong,中zhongguozhengjianhuifuzhuxifangxinghai3月yue7日rizaizhengxiejingjijiebiezhudijieshouzhengquanshibaojizhecai访fangshibiaoshi,放fangkaiguzhiqihuodexiangguancuoshizhengzaiyanjiu,并bingbiaoshijinnianyinggainengchulai。自zi2015年niangushiyichangbodongzhihou,股guzhiqihuodehenduochangtaihuacuoshibeixianzhi。1个geyuezhiqian,股guzhiqihuojingliliaodisancisongbang。2018年nian12月yue2日ri,中zhongjinsuobiaoshi,将jiangzi12月yue3日rijiesuanriqi,下xiadiaoguzhi期货交易baozhengjin、平pingjincangshouxufei,以yijizengjiadangeheyuerineikaicangshuliang。随suizhuoA股gushichangderuhuorutu,股guzhidequanmianfangkaizhirikedai

  


  前qianqibaogaozhong,我womentixingguotouzizhe,持chiyougupiaocuntoudepengyou,可keyipeizhishaoliangguzhikongdanzuoweiduichong。这zheliangrixingqingdezoushichongfentixianliaoduichongdezhongyaoxing。不buguoduiyumeiyouchiyougupiaodepengyou,对duiyuguzhiqihuojianyiduokanshaodong,股guzhidangqianchuyugaoweidezhendangqujianzhong,需xuyaonaixindengdaiqixiayibudetupo

  《试shicuojiaoyishichangguancha》的deyanjiufenxijunyuanyudujiaquanyuzichanguanlimoxing

  GAM俱julebujianjieGAM(Global Asset Management)俱julebuyituozhongliangzibenqixiaqihuo、信xintuo、寿shouxian、银yinxing、产chanyejijindengjinrongdapingtaiyoushi,为weitouzijigou、投touzirendajianjiaoliuqudao,得dedaoduojiajinrongjigoujizhiminggaoxiaodedalizhichiyucanyu,碰pengzhuangzhihuidehuohua,促cujinjinrongxinziben、新xinjishu、新xinchanpin、新xinmoshi。GAM俱julebuhuijuqihuo、期qiquan、股gupiao、股guquan、房fangdichan、外waihui、债zhaiquan、黄huangjindengxingyezhuanjia,共gongtongyantaoxingyetouzijihuihequanqiushichangdezichanpeizhiqushi,推tuiyansuanfa、模moxing,改gaishanzichanpeizhidexiaolv,降jiangdizichanguanlifengxian

  策celuejiaoyibuzhuyaofuzequanyuzichanguanlimoxingjicelueyanfa,并bingtigongqihuojingji、投touzizixun、交jiaoyipeixun、付fufeiyanbaodengyewu。团tuanduichengyuanzhuyaoyoujinrong、经jingji、数shuxue、计jisuanjidengzhuanyeboshi、硕shuoshi、学xueshigoucheng,博boshi、硕shuoshibilichaoguo60%,年nianqinghuoli、专zhuanyehua、高gaosuzhi、是shituanduibiaozhi。连lianxuduonianbeipingweigongsiyouxiubumen,是shizhongliangqihuofazhanzuikuaidebumenzhiyi

  试shicuojiaoyizi2012年niantuixiangshichangyilai,广guangshouhaoping,具juyoujiaogaodezhimingduheyingxiangli,已yichengweixingyezhimingpinpai。联lianheduofanggongtongtuichudeSCJY《职zhiyejiaoyinenglixunlian》课kecheng,以yijiaoyishizhanweimude,提tigongliaocongrumendaozishenzhuanjiadebutongjieduankecheng,致zhiliyujiaoyinenglidepeiyangyuxunlian,已yibangzhuzhongduokehugaishanjiaoyizhuangkuang,走zoushangzhiyejiaoyidaolu,从congrenyuanguimoshangyichengweiqihuoxingyediyipeixunpinpai。利liyongrengongzhinengjishuyanfadeK线xianjuleimoxinghexingqingjiegoudetuxiangshibiemoxingzaiqihuoxingyezhongchuyulingxiandiwei,引yinlinggailingyudeyanjiuchaoliu

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