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光大邱跃成:钢材需求超出预期,谨防供应端压力 | 独家观点

2019-04-16     牛牛财经   来源:和讯名家
文章摘要:  编辑/刘哲   邱跃成 |光大期货研究所黑色研究总监   现为光大期货研究所黑色研究总监,兼任西本新干线特约评论员、中物联钢铁物流专委会特约研究员。十多年钢铁贸易、信息咨询、电子商务行业从业经验,对黑色商品产业链有着较丰富的理论及实践操….

  编bianji/刘liuzhe

  邱qiuyuecheng | 光guangdaqihuoyanjiusuoheiseyanjiuzongjian

  现xianweiguangdaqihuoyanjiusuoheiseyanjiuzongjian,兼jianren西xibenxingan线xianteyuepinglunyuan、中zhongwuliangangtiewuliuzhuanweihuiteyueyanjiuyuan。十shiduoniangangtiemaoyi、信xinxizixun、电dianzishangwuxingyecongyejingyan,对duiheiseshangpinchanyelianyouzhuojiaofengfudelilunjishijiancaozuojineng,擅shanchangcongjibenmianjiaoduduigangtiejiyuanliaoxingyedashijinxingfenxiyanpan。多duocizaizhongyangdianshitai、第diyicaijingdianshitai、人renminwang(603000)、新xinhuawang、上shanghaizhengquanbao、中zhongguoyejinbaodengquanweimeitifabiaopinglunguandian,在zaishujiemeijiaogangxingyedahuishangjiugangtiejiyuancailiaoshichangxingshifabiaoyanjiang。全quanqiuhuabeijingxiadezibenshichangyouhenduodudaojianjie

  核hexinguandian

  ?. 后houqigongyingduanrengyoujinyibushangshengdekongjian。一yidanxuqiubunengyizhichaoyuqixianghao,供gongyingduandeyalijiuhuixianxian。螺luowenjiagezaijingguolianxudafushangzhanghou,下xiazhouhuojiangmianlinyidingdediaozhengyali,重zhongdianguanzhuyijiduhongguanjixingyeshujubiaoxian

  ?.  热rejuanchanliangyidadaolishigaoweishuiping,后houqirengyoubushaorejuanxinzengchannengtoufang,市shichangduirejuanhouqigongyingduanrengyouyalijiadadeyuqi

  ?.  螺luowen1910盘panmianlirunshangzhang159元yuan/吨dunzhi657元yuan/吨dun;热rejuanpanmianlirunshangzhang85元yuan/吨dunzhi556元yuan/吨dun;江jiangsudianluganglirunhuisheng31元yuanzhi300元yuan/吨dun

  螺luowenfangmian,本benzhougongbude3月yuefenjinchukoujisherongshujuquanmianchaochushichangyuqi,经jingjiqiwenyuqijinyibuqianghua。市shichangchengjiaojijiangkujunjinyibujiakuai,显xianshizhongduanxuqiuyiranwangsheng,同tongshishagangdenggangchangchuchangjiagedafushangdiao,对duishichangqingxuxingchengjifa,促cuchengjiagechixushangzhang。值zhidezhuyideshi,目muqiangangchangchangliuchenggangchangdungangmaoliyouhuifudao700-800 元yuan/吨dun,电dianluqiyelirunhuifudao300元yuan/吨dun,后houqigongyingduanrengyoujinyibushangshengdekongjian。一yidanxuqiubunengyizhichaoyuqixianghao,供gongyingduandeyalijiuhuixianxian。螺luowenjiagezaijingguolianxudafushangzhanghou,下xiazhouhuojiangmianlinyidingdediaozhengyali,重zhongdianguanzhuyijiduhongguanjixingyeshujubiaoxian

  热rejuanfangmian,本benzhougongbude3月yuefenqichechanxiaojiwajixiaoshoushujujunhuanbigaishan,下xiayouxuqiubiaoxianjiaohao,整zhengtikucunjiangfujiaoshangzhouxiangbiyousuokuoda,社shekujichangkujunmingxiandiyuquniantongqi。本benzhoubaogangjiang5月yuerezhajijiashangdiao80元yuan,显xianshigangchangtingjiayiyuanjiaoqiang,对duirejuanjiagezoushixingchengzhicheng。不buguorejuanchanliangyidadaolishigaoweishuiping,后houqirengyoubushaorejuanxinzengchannengtoufang,市shichangduirejuanhouqigongyingduanrengyouyalijiadadeyuqi。预yujixiazhourejuanjiagehuojiangchenggaoweizhendangzoushi

  一yi、 本benzhouxingqinggailan

  本benzhougangcaiqixianjiagejundafushangzhang,创chuangnianneixingao。宏hongguanhechanyelihaogongzhen,叠diejiachengbenpansheng,是shituidongbenlungangjiadafushangzhangdezhuyaoyuanyin。宏hongguancengmianjinchukou、社sherong、地dichanxiaoshoudengshujuchixugaishan,多duojiaguojitouxingshangdiaojinnianzhongguojingjizengsuyuqi,市shichangbeiguanyuqimingxianhuanjie;产chanyecengmiantangshan、武wuandengdiersanjiduxianchanzhengcezhixingjiaoweiyange,环huanbaoxianchanyouzaicijiamadeyuqi;成chengbencengmiantiekuangshijiagechixushangzhang,焦jiaotanjiageyezhidiehuiwen,宝baogang、沙shagangdengzhuliugangchangchuchangjiagequanmianshangdiao,对duigangjiashangzhangqidaozhutuizuoyong

  截jiezhibenzhouwuyepanshoupan,螺luowen1910合heyueshoupanjiagewei3824元yuan/吨dun,较jiaoshangzhousishangzhang230元yuan/吨dun,涨zhangfuwei6.4%;热rejuan1910合heyueshoupanjiagewei3736元yuan/吨dun,较jiaoshangzhousishangzhang169元yuan/吨dun,涨zhangfuwei4.74%。现xianhuofangmian,截jiezhibenzhouwu,杭hangzhoushichangshagangluowenjiagewei4100元yuan/吨dun,较jiaoshangzhoumoshangzhang140元yuan/吨dun,上shanghaishichangrejuanxianhuojiagewei3880元yuan/吨dun,较jiaoshangzhoumojiageshangzhang70元yuan/吨dun

  

  

  本benzhouqihuobiaoxianzhengtiqiangyuxianhuo,基jichayousuoshouzhai,螺luowenjichacong485元yuan/吨dunshouzhaizhi419元yuan/吨dun,热rejuanjichacong333元yuan/吨dunshouzhaizhi277元yuan/吨dun

  从congluojuanchabianhualaikan,本benzhouluowenjiagebiaoxianmingxianqiangyurejuan,现xianhuoluojuanchakuoda60元yuan/吨dunzhi120元yuan/吨dun,期qihuoluojuanchakuoda74元yuan/吨dunzhi101元yuan/吨dun

  表biao1:本benzhouqixianhuojiagebiandongqingkuang

  数shujulaiyuan:光guangdaqihuoyanjiusuo

  二er、 本benzhougongxujibenmianqingkuangfenxi

  1、产chanliangjixushangsheng,逼bijinlishigaodian

  本benzhou247家jiagaolukaigonglvhuisheng1.51个gebaifendianzhi81.42%,产channengliyonglvhuisheng2.29个gebaifendianzhi81.74%;独dulidianlujinyibukaigong,53家jiadulidianlukaigonglvhuisheng2.24个gebaifendianzhi76.47%,产channengliyonglvhuisheng3.19个gebaifendianzhi64.24%。

  本benzhouwudapinzhongzhouchanlianghuanbizengjia12.43万wandunzhi1034.63万wandun,同tongbizengjia68.49万wandun,已yijingbijinlishigaodian。其qizhongluowenzhouchanlianghuanbizengjia5.17万wandunzhi349.99万wandun,同tongbizengjia42.05万wandun,自zi2018年nian11月yueyilaizaicidadao350万wandundelishigaoweishuiping;热rejuanzhouchanlianghuanbixiaofuxiajiang0.1万wandunzhi331.87万wandun,同tongbiqunianzengjia8.54万wandun

  目muqiangongyingyijingdadaolishigaowei,在zaitangshan、武wuan、临linfendengdixianchanzhengcezhixingjiaoyandeqingkuangxia,后houxugaoluchannengliyonglvjixushangshengkongjianyouxian,但dandianluchannengliyonglvjiaoquniangaodianrengxiangcha10多duogebaifendian,后houqirengyoutishengkongjian

  2、终zhongduanxuqiuyiranwangsheng,三sanyuesherongshujuchaoyuqi

  从congxuqiuduanlaikan,本benzhouyi,终zhongduanchengjiaodafufangliang,当dangriwodegangtiejiancaichengjiaoliangdadao33.16万wandun,为wei2015年nian4月yueyoushujujiluyilaidezuigaoshuiping,而erhouchengjiaozhubuhuimangong,本benzhouwodegangtiejiancedequanguojiancairijunchengjiaoliangwei22.95万wandun,较jiaoshangzhoujianshao2.1%;西xibenxingan线xianjiancedehushi线xianluozhongduancaigouliangwei4.367万wandun,周zhouhuanbizengjia22.15%,达dadaolishitongqigaoweishuiping。杭hangzhoushichangzhouyizhizhousiluowenchuhuoliangfenbiewei4.1万wandun、4万wandun、4.7万wandunhe4.4万wandun,螺luowengangkucunliangjiangzhi59.9万wandun。关guanzhudazongneican,不bucuoguomeipianzhuan访fang

  本benzhouwuyangxinggongbuyijiduji3月yuejinrongshuju,一yijidu,新xinzengrenminbidaikuan5.81万wan亿yiyuan,同tongbiduozeng9526亿yiyuan;社shehuirongziguimoleijizengliang8.18万wan亿yiyuan,同tongbiduozeng2.34万wan亿yiyuan。其qizhong3月yuesherongguimozengliang2.86亿yiyuan,环huanbitigao2.16亿yiyuan;新xinzengrenmindaikuan1.69万wan亿yiyuan,环huanbizengjia8042亿yiyuan;M2货huobigongyingliangtongbizengjia8.6%,增zengsutigao0.6个gebaifendian,M1货huobigongyingtongbizengjia4.6%,增zengsutigao2.6个gebaifendian。3月yuefensherongjixindaishujuchaoyuqizengchang,市shichangliudongxingjiaoweichongyu,居juminbumenheqiyebumenxindaiduyougaishan,金jinrongzhichishitijingjiliduzengqiang。其qizhong3月yuefenxinzengjumindaikuan8908亿yiyuan,同tongbiduozeng3175亿yiyuan,或huoyushizhuo3月yuefendichanxiaoshouhuojiangchuxianhuinuan

  3、库kucunxiaohuashunli,整zhengtijiangkujixujiakuai

  本benzhouquanguogangcaikucunjixudafuxiajiang,五wudapinzhonggangcaishekuhuanbijianshao87.69万wandunzhi1426.33万wandun,同tongbijingjianshao169.52万wandun;厂changkuhuanbijianshao28.92万wandunzhi464.92万wandun,同tongbijianshao119.4万wandun

  其qizhongluowenshekuhuanbijianshao51.04万wandunzhi767.2万wandun,同tongbijianshao100.53万wandun;厂changkujianshao21.08万wandunzhi206.9万wandun,同tongbijianshao83.02万wandun

  热rejuanshehuikucunhuanbijianshao10.7万wandunzhi223.7万wandun,同tongbiqunianjianshao24.4万wandun;钢gangchangkucunjianshao2.91万wandunzhi92.67万wandun,同tongbijianshao2.71万wandun

  图tu17:热rejuanshehuikucun  图tu18:热rejuangangchangkucun

  4、3月yuegangcaichukoujixuhuisheng,在zaiyidingchengdushanghuanjieliaogongyingyali

  据juhaiguantongji,3月yuefenwoguogangcaichukouliang632.7万wandun,同tongbizengjia67.6万wandun,增zengchang12%;较jiaoshangyuezengjia181.5万wandun,日rijunhuanbizengchang26.7%;进jinkouliang89.9万wandun,同tongbijianshao33.5万wandun,下xiajiang27.1%,较jiaoshangyuezengjia8万wandun,日rijunhuanbixiajiang0.9%。1-3月yuewoguoleijichukougangcai1702.5万wandun,同tongbizengjia190万wandun,增zengchang12.6%;累leijijinkougangcai289.7万wandun,同tongbijianshao55.4万wandun,下xiajiang16.1%。

  5、长changliuchenglirunxiaofubodong,短duanliuchenglirundafuhuisheng

  本benzhoutiekuangshixianhuojiagezouqiang,盘panmianjiagegaoweihuiluo,焦jiaotanpanmianjiagezhendangzouruo,现xianhuojiagechiwen,钢gangcaijiagedafulazhang,本benzhoujiangsudiqugangchangluowenxianhuodungangmaolijiaoshangzhoushangzhang107元yuanzhi825元yuan;螺luowen1910盘panmianlirunshangzhang159元yuan/吨dunzhi657元yuan/吨dun;热rejuanpanmianlirunshangzhang85元yuan/吨dunzhi556元yuan/吨dun;江jiangsudianluganglirunhuisheng31元yuanzhi300元yuan/吨dun

  图tu20:螺luowenpanmianlirun   图tu21:热rejuanpanmianlirun

  三san、 本benzhouhongguanjixingyezhongyaoxinxi

  1、4月yue8日ri,国guojiafazhangaigeweiguanyuyinfa《2019年nianxinxingchengzhenhuajianshezhongdianrenwu》的detongzhi。重zhongdianrenwubaokuo:推tuidong1亿yifeihujirenkouzaichengshiluohumubiaoqudejuedingxingjinzhanhujirenkouzaichengshiluohumubiaoqudejuedingxingjinzhan,实shixianchangzhurenkouhehujirenkouchengzhenhualvjuntigao1个gebaifendianyishang;城chengquchangzhurenkou100万wan―300万wandeⅡ型xingdachengshiyaoquanmianquxiaoluohuxianzhi;城chengquchangzhurenkou300万wan―500万wandeⅠ型xingdachengshiyaoquanmianfangkaifangkuanluohutiaojian,并bingquanmianquxiaozhongdianquntiluohuxianzhi。超chaodatedachengshiyaodiaozhengwanshanjifenluohuzhengce,大dafuzengjialuohuguimo、精jingjianjifenxiangmu,确quebaoshebaojiaonanianxianhejuzhunianxianfenshuzhanzhuyaobili

  2、据juxinhuashe4月yue13日ridian,投touziduijingjizengchangfahuizhuoguanjianxingzuoyong。今jinnianqianlianggeyue,投touzizengsuyanxuqunian9月yueyilaidepingwenhuishengtaishi。但danyucitongshi,制zhizaoyetouzizengsubugao,民minjiantouziheyouxiaotouzixuyaojiali。面mianduiwaibuhuanjingbuquedingxingheguoneijingjixiaxingyali,更gengxuyaojingzhunfali,通tongguohelikuodayouxiaotouzi,稳wendingguoneiyouxiaoxuqiu,有youlizhichengjingjipingwenyunxing

  3、按anrenminbijijia,中zhongguo3月yuechukoutongbizengchang21.3%,预yuqiwei6.3%,前qianzhiweixiahua16.6%。按anrenminbijijia,中zhongguo3月yuechukoutongbizengchang21.3%,预yuqiwei6.3%,前qianzhiweixiahua16.6%。中zhongguo3月yuefenyi美元jijiachukoutongbizengchang14.2%,预yuguwei6.5%。按anmeiyuanjijia,中zhongguo3月yuemaoyishuncha326.4亿yimeiyuan,预yuqiwei57亿yimeiyuan,前qianzhiwei40.8亿yimeiyuan

  4、中zhongguo3月yuefenxinzengrenminbidaikuan16900亿yiyuan,前qianzhi8858亿yi,市shichangyuqi12500亿yi;社shehuirongziguimozengliang28600亿yiyuan,前qianzhi7030亿yi,市shichangyuqi18500亿yi;M1同tongbi4.6%,前qianzhi2.0%,市shichangyuqi3.0%;M1同tongbi8.6%,前qianzhi8.0%,市shichangyuqi8.2%。

  5、根genjugongchengjixiexiehuitongjishuju,2019年nian3月yuewajixingyexiaoshou44278台tai,同tongbizengchang16%。1Q19挖wajixingyehejixiaoshou74779台tai,同tongbizengchang25%,其qizhong1Q19国guoneihejixiaoshou69329台tai,同tongbizengchang24%。

  6、中zhongqixieshujuxianshi,3月yueguoneiqichexiaoliangwancheng252万wanliang,同tongbi-5.2%,乘chengyongchexiaoliang201.9万wanliang,同tongbi-6.9%(1-3月yuechengyongchexiaoliang526.3万wanliang,同tongbi-13.7%)。

  7、生shengtaihuanjingbutongbao3月yuequanguokongqizhiliangzhuangkuang,168个gezhongdianchengshizhong,空kongqizhiliangjiaohaoqian10位weichengshiyicishihaikou、拉lasa、深shenzhen、惠huizhou、中zhongshan、黄huangshan、舟zhoushan、雅yaan、珠zhuhai、福fuzhou;较jiaochahou10位weishizibo、枣zaozhuang、潍weifang、临linyi、锦jinzhou、乌wulumuqi、石shijiazhuang、唐tangshan、滨binzhou、沈shenyang

  8、据juzhonggangxiezuixinshuju,3月yuexiaxunquanguozhongdiangangtieqiyecugangrijunchanliang183.46万wandun,较jiaoshangyixunjianshao6.77万wandun,降jiangfuwei3.56%;截jiezhi3月yuexiaxunmo,重zhongdiangangtieqiyegangcaikucunliang1162.80万wandun,较jiaoshangyixunmojianshao222.45万wandun,降jiangfuwei16.06%。

  9、据juhaiguanzongshushuju,2019年nian3月yuewoguochukougangcai632.7万wandun,较jiaoshangyuezengjia181.5吨dun,同tongbizengchang12.0%;1-3月yuewoguoleijichukougangcai1702.5万wandun,同tongbizengchang12.6%。3月yuewoguojinkougangcai89.9万wandun,较jiaoshangyuezengjia8.0万wandun,同tongbixiajiang27.1%;1-3月yuewoguoleijijinkougangcai289.7万wandun,同tongbixiajiang16.1%。3月yuewoguojinkoutiekuangshajiqijingkuang8642.4万wandun,较jiaoshangyuezengjia334.4万wandun,同tongbizengchang0.7%;1-3月yuewoguoleijijinkoutiekuangshajiqijingkuang26078.9万wandun,同tongbixiajiang3.5%。3月yuewoguochukoujiaotan60.0万wandun,较jiaoshangyuejianshao8.8万wandun,同tongbixiajiang36.2%;1-3月yuewoguoleijichukoujiaotan200.3万wandun,同tongbixiajiang8.3%。

  10、4月yue11日ri,上shanghaiershiyechengjiandeshangangrizhaogangtiejingpinjidi2号hao5100立lifangmigaolugongchengreshiyishizaishangang2号haogaoluqichetingchepingtailongzhongjuxing,9时shi16分fen,铁tieshuichehuanhuankairuchutiekou,铁tieshuirubotaoxiongyongbanyongrutieshuiche,山shangangrizhaogangtiejingpinjidi2号hao5100立lifangmigaolugongchengzhengshireshichutie

  11、近jinrilinfenshizhengfuxiafatongzhi,从cong2019年nian4月yue15日riqi,到dao2019年nian10月yue31日rizhi,对duihuozhoushi、洪hongdongxian、尧yaoduqu、襄xiangfenxian、曲quwoxian、侯houmashi,临linfen、侯houmajingjikaifaquxiangguanqiyeshishizhongdianguankong。各gexianshiqucanzhao《临linfenshi2018-2019年niangongyeqiyehejianzhushigonggongdichayihuacuofengshengchanfangan》,对duichunxiajigongyeqiyeshishicuofengshengchanguankong,初chubukaolvyaoduqu、洪hongdongxian、襄xiangfenxian、临linfenjingjikaifaqugongyepaiwuliangzai2018年niandejichushang,削xiaojian50%左zuoyou;其qitaxian(市shi、区qu)工gongyepaiwuliangzai2018年niandejichushang,削xiaojian30%左zuoyou

  四si、 观guandianzongjie

  本benzhougongbude3月yuefenjinchukoujisherongshujuquanmianchaochushichangyuqi,经jingjiqiwenyuqijinyibuqianghua。市shichangchengjiaojijiangkujunjinyibujiakuai,显xianshizhongduanxuqiuyiranwangsheng,同tongshishagangdenggangchangchuchangjiagedafushangdiao,对duishichangqingxuxingchengjifa,促cuchengjiagechixushangzhang。值zhidezhuyideshi,目muqiangangchangchangliuchenggangchangdungangmaoliyouhuifudao700-800 元yuan/吨dun,电dianluqiyelirunhuifudao300元yuan/吨dun,后houqigongyingduanrengyoujinyibushangshengdekongjian。一yidanxuqiubunengyizhichaoyuqixianghao,供gongyingduandeyalijiuhuixianxian。螺luowenjiagezaijingguolianxudafushangzhanghou,下xiazhouhuojiangmianlinyidingdediaozhengyali,重zhongdianguanzhuyijiduhongguanjixingyeshujubiaoxian

  热rejuanfangmian,本benzhougongbude3月yuefenqichechanxiaojiwajixiaoshoushujujunhuanbigaishan,下xiayouxuqiubiaoxianjiaohao,整zhengtikucunjiangfujiaoshangzhouxiangbiyousuokuoda,社shekujichangkujunmingxiandiyuquniantongqi。本benzhoubaogangjiang5月yuerezhajijiashangdiao80元yuan,显xianshigangchangtingjiayiyuanjiaoqiang,对duirejuanjiagezoushixingchengzhicheng。不buguorejuanchanliangyidadaolishigaoweishuiping,后houqirengyoubushaorejuanxinzengchannengtoufang,市shichangduirejuanhouqigongyingduanrengyouyalijiadadeyuqi。预yujixiazhourejuanjiagehuojiangchenggaoweizhendangzoushi

  中zhongtouyuanbangzichanguanliyouxiangongsiqihuoyanjiuyuan

  ―谢xieyiqin

  4月yue17号haoxiawu15:30  告gaosunin

  农nongchanpinzhongduanqiqushizonghepanduan

benwenshoufayuweixingongzhonghao:大dazongneican。文wenzhangneirongshuzuozhegerenguandian,不budaibiaohexunwanglichang。投touzizhejucicaozuo,风fengxianqingzidan

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